SPY Trading Range

SPY is approaching a third attempt at cracking 113.2 and I think most traders are shooting for it. This makes me a little more cautious than usual because when everyone is shooting for something then volatility increases. We've had a relentless rally since the 8/31 low and are overdue for a decent pullback. The bonds have been in a downtrend since the beginning of the rally but just today broke the downtrend line.

Still nothing guarantees that we will pullback or hit 113.2, we just have to watch the trading range. Specfically if SPY breaks yesterday's low of 112.2 then there is a good possibility SPY drops all the way to 111.52 to fill the gap. If further SPY can not hold 111.52 then SPY is headed all the way down to 109.46. On the other hand if SPY can hold above yesterday's low at 112.2 then I favor SPY to make another run at 113.2