ES Short Setup

ES gapped down overnight from 1200.5 and opened at 1186, since then ES has rallied to 1193. At ~1192 a +1020 tick signal was observed and although ES made a higher high following the +1020 tick signal, the higher high was not accompanied by a higher tick. Furthermore from the difference between 1192 and 1193 is only 1 ES point and this is far less then the average ES advance during the rally up from the 1185 low. This indicates to me that the trend is changing and that ES should drop from here. On average I have observed that ES drops ~5-6 points from +1000 tick signals when it fails to follow through. So I am tentatively expecting ES to drop to 1185. However I would exit my short position early if we were to get a -1000 tick signal accompanied with basing action. The trend is down today so the trend is on my side. Regardless of what happens, I will exit my short today because I don't like being short on Monday.

Once ES drops below 1189, 1191 becomes my stop. For now my stop is 1193, the previous high.