Breadth Will Indicate Whether ES Keeps Rallying

ES held 1175 yesterday and is now set to gap up and open at 1187. I couldn't fathom going long yesterday for a few reasons: First ES bounced quickly at 1175 and so I was waiting for another opportunity for ES to drop near 1175 and consolidate before going long. Second when ES did drop to 1175 near the end of the day, I didn't want to hold a long position overnight given that we're in a downtrend.

From here there are a lot of possibilities for ES. The path ES chooses will depend on the up volume to down volume ratio (breadth). If the breadth is greater than 5 and stays that way then I favor a small pullback in ES near the open before ES rallies over 1193. If breadth is weak then ES may rally as high as 1193 before dropping back towards 1175. Finally ES could move down quickly in an attempt to shake out the longs that held overnight.