The Dust Settles

Time and time again Buffet's words ring true: the best time to buy is when fear is widespread. ES is up big time after hours. This is what is expected following a stock market crash.

Technically, ES made a higher low and volume dropped off. Though it was still high and I had my doubts about going long. But now ES has created a 14 point gap up. Of course, I interpret this gap as a bad omen that the stock market will drop to 1107 again sometime in the future. 1148 is the closest turning point.

If ES can climb and hold above 1148, then ES is headed all the way back to 1216.75. If not then I am exiting all my long positions at 1148 because I believe a very steep drop will begin. And even if ES does make it all the way back to 1216.75, I still believe that a steep drop will follow. The price action in the stock market has been very different over the past few weeks and I am interpreting this as a trend change.